As 2024 illustrated, zealous attention placed on small shifts in the median rate projection isn’t always a useful guide to the economic outlook.

The Fed’s dot plot is a chart that records each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate. The dot plot is updated every three months and is meant to provide insight into the Fed’s future rate decisions,

Wall Street is stuck on the dot plot again, and it’s turning into a joke. Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting this Wednesday, traders, economists, and anyone who watches the Fed for a living are all stuck on one question: Will the median forecast from 19 Fed officials show one interest rate cut in 2025,