The International Trade and Investment (ITI) Program holds three regular meetings annually, in winter, spring, and at the NBER Summer Institute. The ITI Program has 85 research associates, 11 faculty ...

The Development of the American Economy (DAE) program was one of the first research programs launched by Martin Feldstein in ...

New research by NBER affiliates, circulated prior to peer review for discussion and comment. NBER Working Papers may not offer policy recommendations or normative judgments about policies, but may ...

We develop and quantify a novel growth theory in which economic activity endogenously shifts from material production to quality improvements. Consumers derive utility from goods with differing ...

We study a flexible class of trade models with international production networks and arbitrary wedge-like distortions like markups, tariffs, or nominal rigidities. We characterize the general ...

This paper investigates the economic and social consequences of sovereign default on external debt. We focus on the crises’ impact on real per capita GDP, infant mortality, life expectancy, poverty ...

We analyze the impact of credit risk and higher interest rates on U.S. bank solvency, expanding on the work of Jiang et al. (2023). Our variation of their bank-run model demonstrates how credit losses ...

We assess the efficacy of market-based systemic risk measures that rely on U.S. financial firms’ stock return co-movements with market- or sector-wide returns under stress from 1895 to 2023. Stress ...

U.S. and European banking institutions were hit by a wave of distress in March 2023. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic reacted with an array of interventions, some targeting individual ...

This paper uses two large datasets built from quarterly labor force surveys to provide a global perspective on labor market downturns. The distribution of the severity and duration of labor market ...

We examine next-day newspaper accounts of large daily jumps in 19 national stock markets to assess their proximate cause, clarity as to cause, and geographic source. Our sample of over 8,000 jumps, ...

In the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian crises, many emerging markets self-insured by accumulating international reserves (i.e., non-contingent assets) in excess of what many models predicted, while ...