The Development of the American Economy (DAE) program was one of the first research programs launched by Martin Feldstein in ...

The International Trade and Investment (ITI) Program holds three regular meetings annually, in winter, spring, and at the NBER Summer Institute. The ITI Program has 85 research associates, 11 faculty ...

This disagreement reflects a 60-year history of misapplication of the neoclassical theory of investment to interpret empirical work and guide policy analysis. In this article I reconsider the ...

We develop and quantify a novel growth theory in which economic activity endogenously shifts from material production to quality improvements. Consumers derive utility from goods with differing ...

Using data on 2.5 million great-grandchildren linked to their great-grandfathers in the US (1850–1940), we show that economic gaps persisted strongly across four generations despite major structural ...

This paper investigates the economic and social consequences of sovereign default on external debt. We focus on the crises’ impact on real per capita GDP, infant mortality, life expectancy, poverty ...

In recent years, field experiments have reshaped policy worldwide, but scaling ideas remains a thorny challenge. Perhaps the most important issue facing policymakers today is deciding which ideas to ...

We analyze the impact of credit risk and higher interest rates on U.S. bank solvency, expanding on the work of Jiang et al. (2023). Our variation of their bank-run model demonstrates how credit losses ...

U.S. and European banking institutions were hit by a wave of distress in March 2023. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic reacted with an array of interventions, some targeting individual ...

We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no ...

Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the ...

In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: the opioid epidemic and the political realignment ...