Admittedly, assigning a meaningful probability to nuclear war presents a particular challenge because a nuclear war has never been fought. Good forecasters often begin to assess odds by calculatin ...

But there is no ‘true’ probability to compare the last with the forecaster’s assessment. There is no ‘probability-ometer’. It either rains or it doesn’t. What’s more, as emphasized ...

New methodology based on structural mechanics and probability theory helps pipeline operators assess and ensure the integrity of their onshore high-pressure pipelines. Subscribe Magazine ...

A graphic on The New York Times’ website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. Its steady movement triggered anxiety ...

The cells dynamically integrate information about probability and magnitude to predict risk. This ability to assess risk is important for making decisions in uncertain situations. "Our study ...

Pew Research Center designed this study to assess the current state of online survey sampling methods – both probability-based and opt-in – and determine their accuracy on general population estimates ...